Morning Bid: Inflation runs hot in the euro zone

 


Vidya Ranganathan's analysis on the day's events in the European and international markets

Investors hoping the European Central Bank to lower interest rates by nearly a percentage point in the first half of 2025 may be disappointed if the most recent inflation data from Germany and Spain is any indication.

Later today, the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro zone is estimated to have increased 2.4% in December, which is faster than the 2.2% increase in November.

Prices are already rising, according to indicators, with Germany and Spain reporting faster-than-expected increases in inflation.

Before the ECB's next meeting on January 30, this week's pricing data will be the final one. If there are any indications that inflation is decreasing further, the ECB would have more

With natural gas prices at 14-month highs, the ECB may face challenges in the energy sector. A smaller decline in energy prices was the cause of Germany's December inflation rate, which was higher than expected.

With less gas in store than in recent years and the termination of a decades-long agreement for Russia to sell gas to Europe via Ukraine, prices are expected to be high even though the 2022 spike won't happen again.

A similar predicament confronts Britain as wage growth exacerbates inflationary pressures. On Monday, rates on British 30-year government bonds nearly reached their highest level since 1998.

Markets continue to hold out hope that Donald Trump, the incoming president of the United States, will not pursue a tariff policy as aggressively as anticipated. Even though Trump denied a Washington Post article,

 The ECB may encounter difficulties in the energy industry given that natural gas prices are at 14-month highs. Germany's December inflation rate was higher than anticipated, primarily due to a slower drop in energy prices.

Even though the 2022 increase won't occur again, prices are still projected to be high since there is less gas in stock than in previous years and because a decades-long deal for Russia to sell gas to Europe through Ukraine has been terminated.


Britain faces a similar situation as inflationary pressures are intensified by wage increases. British 30-year government bond rates almost hit their highest level since 1998 on Monday.


The markets are still hopeful that Donald Trump, the next US president, won't implement a tariff strategy as vigorously as

.Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

 Economic data: UK Halifax house prices, Italy CPI, France CPI, Euro zone HICP and unemployment rate, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

Fed speakers: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks in Raleigh

Debt auctions: Germany reopening of 2-year auction, United Kingdom (TADAWUL:4280) reopening of 30-year auction


Post a Comment

0 Comments