There are concerns that these disruptions could threaten
larger markets and perhaps economies as battered bond markets are rapidly
repricing government borrowing costs to levels not seen in decades.
The primary causes of the bond frenzy have been widely discussed, including
market anxiety over sticky U.S. inflation, interest rates set by the Federal
Reserve, and the soaring debt as a new U.S. presidential administration assumes
office.
However, nervous investors appear to be losing sight of the
fact that central banks still possess a very potent weapon in the form of their
balance sheets.
The goal of central banks is to maintain financial
stability. They can mobilize their potentially unlimited balance sheets at any
time if they believe that markets are unreasonably restive.
Policymakers can always pull back if necessary, even though
during the past two years, a number of significant central banks have rolled
debt off their books and sold it outright in certain situations.
This has already occurred to us. In late 2022, the Bank of
England effectively stabilized the gilt market by temporarily reversing its
balance sheet contraction. Additionally, the Fed followed suit during the March
2023 regional bank wobble.
Furthermore, it appears that the Fed and other central banks
will stop their "quantitative tightening" (QT), or balance sheet
runoffs, early this year. Before the program concludes, analysts predict that
an additional half a trillion dollars will be spent in the United States.
According to a new New York Fed monitoring tool, this
outflow has not yet resulted in a shortfall in U.S. bank reserves or disrupted
the liquidity of the broader money market.
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